February 1st Federal fund Rates and FOMC Statement prediction:

With this month I still believe that the FED will not raise the interest rates nor cut them.

The forecast for this month is 5.50% and I believe it will remain like this as it has for the past 4 months.

However with the FED statement, this is the real catalyst for the market to move to vigorously. After a lot of fundamental and technical analysis I predict that the market at the start of the night will spike up for a bit after such intense news however it will then slow down and reverse in the opposite direction.

Overall the market seems very bearish now when it comes to technical analysis but normally with the FED statement it tends to be very positive for the market and makes the market go up, this may happen but overall for the next month the market should be on its way down after all of this consolidation and it being massively overbought.

February 1st Federal fund Rates and FOMC Statement outcome:

The prediction for the market was spot on. The market was expecting a rate cut in March 2024, but the FOMC showed that this wasn’t the case. The S&P dropped from 4928 to 4850 within the day of January 31st.

February 1st ISM Manufacturing PMI prediction:

After the market already being in a bearish situation this news just adds on to our call that February will be a bearish month for stocks and currencies. The forecast for the PMI is currently 47.2 this is already a bad look for the economy as any number below 50 for PMI indicates that we are in a struggling economy that is contracting. If the actual reading were to be lower than this which I predict it will be this will mean that the market will continue falling. However it it is higher than the forecast I think it will go up for the night however markets are still more lenient to fall this month so overall it will be a bearish market.

February 2nd Non Farm Payroll Prediction

I believe this will be the start of a for the market because there is a lot of technical analysis that shows that the market will drop tonight and this news will just confirm it because right now the forecast for the jobs added is 187k even if the actual is above I still believe the market will fall tonight. check my full analysis here.

February 28th Prelim GDP q/q Prediction

This specific use of economic research measures the change in value in goods and services by the economy and is released quarterly 60 days after the quarter ends. As of right now there is a lot of talk about a market crash as most economist are looking at this economy and thinking the same thing. I believe that there will be a market crash sometime during this year and this news could be the start of it. The forecast for this GDP is 3.3% which is the exact same as the previous. After all this economic research I believe that the percentage release will be lower than the forecast which will make the market fall as it would be a sign on negative movement in the economy. As of right now many other countries like United Kingdom, China and Germany have declared that they are in a recession and I believe it is a matter of time before the US joins them.